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- 호빵 (jasminelee)
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- 2007-09-18 10:17
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엠파스 > 경제/디지털 > 국제경제 >
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싱가포르 부동산 가격 하락가능성 커
고공행진을 계속했던 싱가포르 부동산 가격이 2009년까지 공급되는 넘쳐나는 주택들로 인하여 제 가격을 찾아가고 있다고 15일 로이터 통신이 전했다.
지난 40개월동안 큰 변동폭을 보이며 상승했던 개인 주택 가격이 현재는 보합세를 보이고 있다. 하지만 갑자기 주택 가격이 하락세를 보일 위험성이 점점 더 커지고 있다고 애널리스트들은 전했다.
아시아에만 60억달러 상당의 부동산을 소유하고 있는 글로벌 부동산 투자 회사인 라셀 인베스트 매니지먼트는 싱가포르 건물들의 가격이 최고조에 이르렀고 조만간 조금씩 정리할 것이라고 발표했다.
라셀 인베스트 에시아-패시픽 잭 챈들러 최고경영자(CEO)는 “글로벌 표준과 비교해 보았을 때, 싱가포르에 있는 호화 아파트의 경우 매우 비싼 가격대를 형성하고 있기 때문에, 공급이 활성화되면 얼마 있지 않아 적절한 가격대를 유지할 것이다.”라고 전했다.
부동산 개발회사들과 중개인들은 인기있는 아파트의 경우 사려는 사람들이 밤새 줄을 서서 기다릴 정도의 구입 열풍이 사라지고 있으며, 심지어 지난 달 부터는 성사되는 계약 건수도 줄어들고 있다고 말했다. 이러한 영향으로 싱가포르 부동산 가격이 지역 라이벌인 홍콩의 과거 수준으로 돌아갈 것이라고 덧붙였다.
OCBC 은행의 투자 연구소의 윈스턴 리우 애널리스트는 “주택 시장의 가격 조정은 이미 진행중”이라고 강조하며, “어느 정도의 가격조정이 이루어질 것인가?”가 현재 제기되고 있는 문제의 핵심이라고 말했다.
6월에 조사된 싱가포르 호화 아파트의 경우 제곱 미터당 평균 1만6743달러로 작년에 비하면 52%나 오른 가격을 형성하고 있다. 반면에 홍콩은 전년대비 13% 상승한 1만8286달러에 거래되고 있다.
싱가포르 주택시장의 상승세를 믿고 부동산을 구입한 투자자들은 초조해 하며 추이를 지켜보고 있다.
지난 4월에 시내 중심가에 있는 아파트를 110만 싱가포르 달러(약 7억원 정도)에 구입한 찰스 웡씨는 “주택 가격이 조만간 오를 것 같지 않아서 매우 고민스럽고, 여러 가지 좋은 않은 조짐들도 보인다.”며 걱정했다.
오광신 기자 kwangshin@newsva.co.kr
<ⓒ아시아 대표 석간 아시아경제 (www.newsva.co.kr) 무단전재 배포금지>
아시아경제 2007-09-17 10:24:51
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- 무빙 (jessie)
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- 2007-09-18 13:43
ST 9월 14일 기사입니다.
Sep 14, 2007
Spore housing market heads for correction
SINGAPORES housing market - which has seen prices skyrocket amid frenzied buying - is heading for a correction, as analysts predict a building boom could flood the city-state with new homes by 2009.
Private home prices, which have surged to decade highs in the past 40 months, are holding for now, but analysts say the market is increasingly vulnerable to a sudden downturn in sentiment.
Global property investor LaSalle Investment Management, which has US$6 billion (S$9 billion) of real estate assets in Asia, says Singapore residential property is fully priced and will consolidate before appreciating any further.
By global standards, Singapore luxury apartments are very expensive. At some point, affordability and common sense have to come in, said Jack Chandler, LaSalle Investment Asia-Pacific Chief Executive Officer.
Property developers and agents say fewer deals were struck last month, slowing a buying frenzy that saw people queue overnight for some projects and that pushed Singapore real estate price gains past those of regional rivals such as Hong Kong.
A correction is going to take place. The question is: how severe? said Winston Liew, analyst at OCBC Investment Research.
Singapore luxury homes fetched an average $16,743 per square metre (psm) in June, up 52 per cent from a year ago, against Hong Kongs 13 per cent rise in capital values to $18,286 psm.
Those who bought property as a sure-fire investment are fretting.
Im nervous because I dont expect prices to rise anytime soon. The signals arent good, said Charles Wong, who paid S$1.1 million (US$728,000) for a one-bedroom downtown apartment in April.
Excess supply
Housing supply has been tight as developers tore down old developments to replace them with newer properties, pushing thousands of displaced homeowners back to the market.
According to Jones Lang LaSalle, some 3,876 private apartments will be demolished this year - more than the 3,295 new homes expected to come on to the market.
These en bloc deals - where entire housing estates are knocked down - have slowed since the government tightened rules on them. Collective home sales totalled S$11 billion in the first seven months this year but dropped to S$783 million in August.
Property market sentiment has been supported by Singapores long-term goal to boost the islands population to 6.5 million from 4.5 million, but analysts forecast a glut of new homes from end-2008.
In terms of actual occupants, there will be excess supply by 2009, said Jones Lang LaSalle Head of Research Chua Yang Liang.
He estimates there will be 11,975 new private apartments available in 2009 - nearly four times the number expected this year and double the anticipated amount in 2008.
Car garages in the sky
At least four out of five Singaporeans live in state-subsidised high-rise flats, leaving the private home market dependent on upper-income residents and foreigners.
Investment firm Emirates Tarian Capital is betting these foreign investors, who comprise nearly half the buyers in most projects, will focus increasingly on high-end homes.
Demand is going to be selective and for branded, quality projects where the quantity is limited, said Kunalan Sivapuniam, managing partner of the firm, which is investing in two high-rises including one 30-storey block equipped with individual lifts to bring owners cars up to each apartment.
Developers, who usually sell their projects in stages, have held off launching their units for sale in recent weeks.
If we feel the market is slowing, were not going to push the project only to have buyers back out later, Cheng Wai Keung, chairman of luxury home builder Wing Tai Holdings said.
Crunch time
Analysts say a global credit crunch could constrain Singapore property firms ability to offer liberal repayment schemes that allow buyers to make a 10 to 20 per cent deposit and delay the bulk of payment until the property nears completion.
These deferred payment plans, introduced after a property slump in 2001, have been key to driving market growth, with up to 90 per cent of buyers in some projects opting for them.
In July, the central bank warned that delayed payments plans posed additional risks to developers and their banks because of the possibility of default. Those risks have only grown with the US mortgage crisis.
If the cost of capital rises, smaller developers will find it harder to offer deferred payment schemes, said an analyst.
Singapores biggest developer CapitaLand said it would continue to offer such schemes where appropriate.
CapitaLand, City Developments and Keppel Land have posted strong second-quarter profits, driven by strong contributions from their Singapore businesses.
They should, however, be largely protected against a fall in housing prices as most have diversified into office property and housing developments outside Singapore. CapitaLand, for example, earns up to 80 per cent of its profit overseas.
Major developers have lower gearing, sufficient cash or unutilised credit lines to prevent a squeeze, wrote Deutsche Bank strategist Gregory Lui in a recent report. -- REUTERS
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garden@님의 댓글
garden@ (emfoxylexid)수고 하셨습니다. 매우 좋은 아티클이였슴다..
garden@님의 댓글
garden@ (emfoxylexid)한국신문이 스트레이트 타임즈에서 발췌 한거 맞쬬??
꼭 필요한 질문, 정성스런 답변 부탁드립니다!
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루루님의 댓글
루루 (happyimj)흥미롭게 잘 읽었슴다. Today지의 한계 절감했구요.ㅠㅠ 앞으로도 좋은 기사 있음 올려 주세욤.
garden@님의 댓글
garden@ (emfoxylexid)비즈니스 신문을 구독하고 있습니다.. 비즈니스에선 Property Boom??? Far from over 이라고 나왔던데욤.. 아직도 Infra 가 quite 스트롱하담서..