지난주 한국은행의 무차별 달러매도 개입으로 USD/KRW 을 1000원 가까이 끌어내렸어죠 (1050에서)...
아무래두 이명박 정권..드디어 정신을 차렸나 봅니다....미국 서브프라임 금융위기, 고 인플레, 고 유가 상황을 무시하고 말도안돼는 GDP 7%성장률에 초점을 둬서.....기준금리 인하, 원화절하 스탠스를 고집하더니...참...ㅉ ㅉ

하여튼 당분간 USD/KRW 는 1000-1020 레인지에......

허나 SGD/KRW cross rate 는 싱가폴 당국 MAS 의 인플레 잡기 정책방향에 더 오를수 있습니다...
현재 730-760 에서 유지되는 정도지만......

아무래도 싱가폴 MAS 는 정책금리인상 보다는 강싱달러로 물가를 잡으려는 노력이 강해서 년말까지 700밑으로 빠지기는 어렵습니다.... 물론 한은이 한버더 외환보유금고 털어서 무차별 개입을 하지 않는한!

하여튼 따끈따끈한 경제기사....쓰는데로 여기에 올릴께여...환율에 민감한 유학생분들 참고 하시길..

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03 Jul 2008 00:26 GMT =DOW JONES-WALL STREET JOURNAL MONEY TALKS:
Korea President Lee Must Embrace A Stronger Won

By 홍길동

A Dow Jones Newswires Column - Contributor to the Wall Street Journal Asia


SINGAPORE (Dow Jones)-- South Korean president Lee Myung-Bak has been busily backtracking on his growth-oriented stance, but hell need to work faster on a recovery in the Korean won if hes to slow his popularity slide at a time of surging oil prices.

The issue of the safety - or not - of U.S. beef has grabbed headlines as the focal point for recent public protests, but theres a lot more to it than that.

There is much anger over the impact on daily lives from high energy prices, and at the failure of the government to aggressively tackle inflation.

While some unionized workers have returned to their jobs and the rallies have faded from the front pages of the international press, the issue of the governments economic priorities is likely to keep simmering - and may yet erupt further.

Lees landslide election victory last year shows how Koreans had high hopes for the former Hyundai Group CEO, expecting his corporate background and experience to liven up an economy thats still healing the wounds of Asias 1997 currency and economic crisis.

Numbers and graphs may show the economy has recovered but rising living costs, job insecurity, a high youth unemployment rate and still-ascending property prices continue to dog consumer sentiment, leaving the economy to largely rely on exports to keep growing.

Although the government has hurriedly shifted its focus to surging oil prices and soaring inflation recently, the damage may already have been done.

Lees right-wing administration couldnt have picked a worse time to concentrate on growth when other central banks across the region were waking up, albeit belatedly, to inflation risks, responding with rate hikes and allowing their domestic currencies to gain, to tackle oil-linked inflationary pressure.

According to a report in the Joon-Ang daily last week, Lees public support rate was a paltry 10% only 100 days after his inauguration, far below that of former presidents.

Roh Moo-Hyuns support rate after his first 100 days in the blue house was 40%, Kim Dae-Jung at 83.2% and Kim Young-Sam at 70.6%, according to the paper.

Market analysts in Korea generally say Lee should have focused more on improving domestic consumption and easing inflationary pressure, rather than stubbornly going for an annual gross domestic production growth target of 7%, which is widely considered highly unlikely - if not impossible.

In fact, the International Monetary Fund said last week that Koreas economic growth will likely moderate to 4.1% this year, compared with 5.0% in 2007.

And the Ministry of Strategy and Finance said Wednesday in its semiannual economic review it is projecting GDP to grow 4.7% this year, much lower than a 6.0% forecast made in March; it is still a shade higher than the Bank of Koreas 4.6% forecast unveiled Tuesday.

In May, consumer prices grew at their fastest pace in nearly seven years, rising 4.9% on-year. Meanwhile, the Bank of Koreas latest Consumer Survey Index hit its lowest mark in more than seven years.

One crucial mistake in Lees growth approach was allowing the won to fall, to help local exporters.

Shipbuilders have been winning a pile of overseas orders again this year, as a result, but the weaker won has also magnified the cost burden on daily lives.

The value of the won has fallen sharply against the greenback from the end of last year. The dollar was at KRW1,035.00 Wednesday, sharply higher than the KRW929.90 average rate for 2007.

With unleaded petrol around $2 per litre in Korea, truck drivers had plenty to complain about with their recent strike action.

Analysts also think Lee is likely to have lost support from parents, many of whom spend a significant part of their household budget on overseas tuition for their children.

"Rising property prices in tandem with commodities and oil is also hurting spending power," says Daewoo Securities fixed-income analyst, Yoon Yeo-Sam.

The government is - belatedly - realizing the won needs to rise. There has been a pickup in jawboning by officials of late, and an increase in market intervention to support the currency.

The central bank was suspected of selling dollars in "massive" amounts near KRW1,057 on Wednesday.

But authorities need to be more aggressive in selling dollars. They should be looking to take the dollar below KRW1,000, a level which would better counter oil-related inflation pressures.

And they can afford to do this.

Korea had foreign exchange reserves of $258.1 billion in its coffers at the end of June. The countrys reserves are the sixth largest in the world.

Rather than focusing on preventing the won from falling, authorities need to focus on actively pushing it higher.

Lee must accept this, if hes to have any chance of winning back supporters and bringing some much-needed stability to the government.


-By 홍길동, Dow Jones Newswires; , 홍길동@dowjones.com

(홍길동 is a markets editor for Dow Jones Newswires in Singapore. He has previously worked as a currency market reporter for Dow Jones in Seoul).